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Assoc. Prof. Juma Kasozi, PhD

Position: Deputy Principal
Categories: Leaderhsip, Teaching Staff
Department: Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences

Biography

Research Interests: Insurance Mathematics and Financial Mathematics. Numerical methods and Optimisation techniques in risk theory, probability of ruin, dividends, Re-insurance, Investments, Pension schemes, Life and Non-Life insurance. ODeL (Open, Distance and eLearning).

Education Background
2025 Award: Vice Chancellor’s Research Excellence Award 2025, Makerere University, Kampala.
2002 − 2005 PhD. Makerere University-Uganda/University of Bergen-Norway. Awarded in 2006. Thesis: Ruin and Optimal Control in an Insurance Portfolio that earns Returns on Investments.
1999 − 2001 MSc(Mathematical Modelling), University of Zimbabwe. Award: University Book Prize 2000. Courses done: Analysis and Probability, Stochastic Differential Equations, Financial Mathematics, Differential Equations for Mathematical Modelling, Optimisation, Numerical Methods for PDEs, Advanced Numerical Methods, Game Theory, Control Theory, Hydrodynamic Stability Theory. Thesis: Application of Control Theory to Insurance.
1989 − 1994 MSC(Mathematics), Makerere University. Courses done: Real Analysis, General Topology, Complex Analysis, Abstract Algebra, Measure Theory, Differential Equations, Numerical Analysis, Computer Science, Operations Research, Biomathematics, Further Abstract Algebra, Number Theory. Thesis: The Distribution of Primes.
1986 − 1989 BSc(Hons), Makerere University. (Mathematics, Physics, Psychology). 1984 − 1986 A-Levels at Namilyango College. (Subjects: Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics).
1980 − 1983 O-Levels at Kyambogo College School. 1971 − 1979 Primary and pre-primary at Bweyogerere c/u Primary School.

Publications

2025 Nicholas Bett, Juma Kasozi and Daniel Ruturwa Sebikabu. Hierarchical forecasting of causes of death with trend breaks in mortality modeling: Kenyan case.Insurance Markets and Companies, 16(1), 15 − 32. doi:10.21511/ins.16(1).2025.02
2024 Angelique Dukunde, Jean Marie Ntaganda, Juma Kasozi, Joseph Nzabanita. Prediction of Hypertension, Tobacco use, Overweight, Obesity in Rwanda using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Sampling and Gibbs Sampling Methods. African Journal of Biomedical Research, 27(4S), 11640 − 11648. https://doi.org/10.53555/AJBR.v27i4S.4906
2024 Herbert Batte, Mahadi Ddamulira, Juma Kasozi, Florian Luca. Multiplicative independence in the sequence of k-generalized Lucas numbers, Indagationes Mathematicae, 2024, ISSN 0019 − 3577, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indag.2024.09.002.
2024 Herbert Batte, Mahadi Ddamulira, Juma Kasozi, Florian Luca. On the exponential diophantine equation Ux n + Ux n+1 = Um. The Ramanujan Journal, Vol. 64, No. 1. 1 − 32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11139-023-00818-x.
2024 Martin Deosborns Arop, Henry Kasumba, Juma Kasozi, Fredrik Berntsson. Optimal actuator design for control of vibrations induced by pedestrian-bridge interactions. Mathematics in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 2. 85−184. https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/16958.
2023 Quantitative Techniques, Study Materials for Examinations. ISBN 978 9970 531 42 4. First Edition, Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Uganda (ICPAU). 2023 Yego NKK, Nkurunziza J, Kasozi J (2023). Predicting health insurance uptake in Kenya using Random Forest: An analysis of socio-economic and demographic factors. PLoS ONE 18(11): e0294166. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0294166.
2023 Martin Arop, Henry Kasumba, Juma Kasozi and Fredrik Berntsson. Optimal Actuator Placement for Control of Vibrations Induced by Pedestrian-Bridge Interactions. Mathematics in Applied Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 3. 172 − 195. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5206/mase/15949.
2023 Nelson K. Yego, Joseph Nkurunziza, Juma Kasozi. Optimizing Pension Participation in Kenya through Predictive Modeling: A Comparative Analysis of Tree-Based Machine Learning Algorithms and Logistic Regression Classifier. Risks 2023, 11(4), 77. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11040077.
2023 Juma Kasozi, Erina Nanyonga, and Fred Mayambala. Prediction of the Stock Prices at Uganda Securities Exchange Using the Exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Model. International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Volume 2023, Article ID 2377314, 8 pages. https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/2377314.
2023 Nelson K. Yego, Joseph Nkurunziza, Juma Kasozi. Drivers of potential policyholders’ uptake of insurance in Kenya using Random Forest. Insurance Markets and Companies, 14(1), 22 − 34. doi:10.21511/ins.14(1).2023.03.
2023 Nicholas Bett, Juma Kasozi, Daniel Ruturwa. Dependency Modeling Approach of Cause-Related Mortality and Longevity Risks: HIV/AIDS. Risks 2023, 11(2), 38; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11020038.
2022 Herbert Batte, Mahadi Ddamulira, Juma Kasozi, Florian Luca. On the multiplicity in Pillai’s problem with Fibonacci numbers and powers of a fixed prime. Glasnik Matematicki. Vol. 57(77) : 185 − 201. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2207.12868.
2022 Mukalazi Herbert, Torbj¨orn Larsson, Juma Kasozi and Fred Mayambala. Long term projection of the demographic and financial evolution of the parliamentary pension scheme of Uganda. Operations Research and Decisions. Vol. 32(3) : 92 − 123. DOI: 10.37190/ord220307.
2022 Edison Mayanja, Livingstone S. Luboobi, Juma Kasozi, Rebecca N. Nsubuga. Mathematical Modelling of HIV-HCV Co-infection Dynamics in Presence of HIV Therapy. Biomath. Vol. 11(1), 2207158, https://doi.org/10.55630/j.biomath.2022.07.158.
2022 Mukalazi Herbert, Torbj¨orn Larsson, Juma Kasozi and Fred Mayambala. Asset liability management for the Bank of Uganda defined benefits scheme by stochastic programming. Operations Research and Decisions. Vol. 32(2) : 105 − 124. DOI: 10.37190/ord220207.
2022 Kasozi Juma. (R1503) Numerical Ultimate Survival Probabilities in an Insurance Portfolio Compounded by Risky Investments. Applications and Applied Mathematics: An International Journal (AAM). Vol. 17(1), Article 4 : 54−67. https://digitalcommons.pvamu.edu/aam/vol17/iss1/4.
2022 Bett, Nicholas, Juma Kasozi, and Daniel Ruturwa. Temporal Clustering of the Causes of Death for Mortality Modelling. Risks 10 : 99. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050099
2021 Dukunde, A., Ntaganda, J.M., Kasozi, J., Nzabanita, J. Prediction of Prevalence of type 2 Diabetes in Rwanda using the Metropolis-Hasting Sampling. African Health Sciences, Vol. 21(2) : 702 − 709. DOI: 10.4314/ahs.v21i2.28
2021 Nelson Kemboi Yego, Juma Kasozi and Joseph Nkurunziza. A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Insurance Uptake in Kenya. Data. Vol 6, 116. https://doi.org/10.3390/data6110116.
2021 Mukalazi Herbert, Torbj¨orn Larsson, Juma Kasozi and Fred Mayambala. Asset Liability Management for the Parliamentary Pension Scheme of Uganda by Stochastic Programming. Afrika Statistika. Vol.16(2) : 2689−2716. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.16929/as/2021.2689.179. MR4307914.
2020 Kasozi Juma, Bumali Mwanda and Godwin Kakuba. Enhancing Survival Probability by Proportional Reinsurance for a Cedant with a Debt Liability. Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences. Vol. 127(1) : 1 − 20. doi.org/10.17654/MS127010001.
2020 Edson Mayanja, Livingstone S. Luboobi, Juma Kasozi and Rebecca N. Nsubuga. Mathematical modelling of HIV-HCV co-infection dynamics in absence of therapy. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. Vol. 2020, 1 − 27. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/2106570.
2020 Kasumo Christian; Kasozi Juma; Kuznetsov Dmitry. Dividend maximization under a set ruin probability target in the presence of proportional and excess-of-loss reinsurance. Applications and Applied Mathematics, An International Journal (AAM), Vol. 15(1) : 13−37. ZBL07225159, MR4110830. https://digitalcommons.pvamu.edu/aam/vol15/iss1/2.
2019 Kasozi Juma. Maximisation of dividends in an insurance portfolio with a debt obligation for exponential claims. Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences (FJMS), Vol. 116, No. 2, 141 − 156. DOI: 10.17654/MS116020141.
2018 Christian Kasumo, Juma Kasozi, Dmitry Kuznetsov. Minimizing the ultimate ruin probability in a diffusion-perturbed classical risk process compounded by proportional and excess-of-loss reinsurance. Int. J. Appl. Math. Stat., 57(5): 68 − 83.
2018 Christian Kasumo, Juma Kasozi, Dmitry Kuznetsov. On minimizing the ultimate ruin probability of an insurer by reinsurance. J. Appl. Math. Volume 2018, Part I, DOI: 10.1155/2018/9180780, 11 pages. MR3770640.
2017 Kasozi Juma, David Ssevviiri, Vincent Umutabazi. Red-injective modules. Commutative Algebra. 15 pages. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1705.06411.
2016 Nansubuga Martha, Juma Kasozi, Fred Mayambala, Charles Wilson Mahera. Maximisation of dividend payouts under infinite ruin probability constraints. International Journal of Mathematics and Computation, 27(4): 68 − 82. MR3492948.
2013 Kasozi Juma and Charles Wilson Mahera. Dividend payouts in a perturbed risk process compounded by investments of the Black-Scholes type. Far East J. Appl. Math., 82(1): 1 − 16. ZBL1285.91058.
2013 Kasozi Juma, Charles Wilson Mahera, Fred Mayambala. Controlling ultimate ruin probability by quota-share reinsurance arrangements. Int. J. Appl. Math. Stat., 49(19): 1 − 15.
2012 Sarah Kisa, Sam Obwoya Kinyera, Charles K. Twesigye, Richard Oriada, Bernard Mugeni, Charles Raymond Okumu, Jude Lubega and Juma Kasozi. A methodological ICTs approach for demystifying the norm that teaching of Mathematics and Science for lower secondary education is hard. in a book titled Special Topics in Computing and ICT Research – ISBN: 978 − 9970 − 25 − 128 − 5.. Pages 168 − 180.
2011 Kasozi Juma, Fred Mayambala, Charles Wilson Mahera. Dividend maximisation in the Cramer-Lundberg model using HAM. J. Mathematics and statistics, 7(1) Pages 61 − 67. ZBL1219.91070. https://doi.org/10.3844/jmssp.2011.61.67.
2005 Kasozi Juma and Jostein Paulsen. Flow of dividends under a constant force of interest. Am. J. Applied Sci., 2(10), 1389 − 1394. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2005.1389.1394.
2005 Kasozi Juma and Jostein Paulsen. Numerical ultimate ruin probabilities under interest force. J. Math and stat., 1(3), 246 − 251. ZBL1142.60391. MR2208867. https://doi.org/10.3844/jmssp.2005.246.251.
2005 Paulsen Jostein, Kasozi Juma, Steigen Andreas. A numerical method to find the probability of ultimate ruin in the classical risk model with stochastic return on investments. Insurance: Math. and Econ. Vol. 36 Issue 3 Pages 399 − 420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2005.02.008. ZBL1242.60071. MR2152852.
Projects /Grant
MAKRIF/CH/02/21 Ug. Shs. 100, 000, 000 Mak-RIF Award for Proposal Titled ”Stochastic model for Sustainable Harvesting of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and Nile Perch (Lates niloticus) Fish Populations on Lake Victoria for Optimal Financial Returns and Monitoring.”
* Ug. Shs. 230, 620, 500 Makerere University Research and Innovations Grant, supported by Government of Uganda: Presenting new approaches to teaching and learning of Mathematical Sciences. (Team member).
* USD 2 million Skills Audit for Nothern Corridor Integration Projects 2015 − 2016.
* SEK 39 million SIDA for capacity building in mathematics and its applications at PhD and postdoctoral levels to run 2015 − 2020. The other collaborators in Sweden are Mathematics Departments at Linkoping University, Stockholm University, Uppsala University, Royal Institute of Technology and Malardalen University.
* USD 1.2 million MSI grant for the 4 year project: UPGRADING THE TRAINING OF MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCE TEACHERS BY INCORPORATING ICTs THROUGH OPEN, DISTANCE AND e-LEARNING (ODeL) IN UGANDA, Project number MSI/WB2/2/24/08 funded by the Millennium Science Initiative (MSI) and coordinated by Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) (2009 − 2012).
* Pounds 2000 from MARM for a staff exchange with University of Bath in November, 2012.
* SEK 5, 276, 720 from ISP for EAUMP Network for the year 2008 − 2010
* SEK 2, 953, 296 from ISP for EAUMP network for the year 2011
* SEK 2, 888, 696 from ISP for EAUMP network for the year 2012
* SEK 2, 604, 096 from ISP for EAUMP network for the year 2013
* NK 8, 342, 750 from NORAD for NORADs programme for masters Studies(NOMA) – IDNOMAPRO- 2007/10057.
* Ug. Shs. 30 millions on average – managed as Treasurer, UMS from 2007 – 2009.
* Ug. Shs. 70 million on average – managed as Chairperson, Entebbe Girls School from 2005 to date.
* USD 1, 000 IUCEA support to staff exchange to UDSM per year for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010.
* USD 5, 000 AMMSI support to give lectures in Financial Mathematics at UDSM in 2007.
* USD 6, 570 AAU support to give lectures in Insurance Mathematics at UDSM in 2009.
* USD 60, 000 PHEA support to project: GENDER PERCEPTIONS OF STAFF AND STUDENTS ON ACCESS AND USE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY IN TEACHING AND LEARNING AT MAKERERE UNIVERSITY
* USD 180, 000 SIDA bilateral research project: Mathematical modelling of Eutrophication and pollution in lake Victoria 2010 − 2014 subproject on: Enhancing Capacity in Basic Science Research and Training for Sustainable Development.
Mentorship / Supervision
ongoing:
* Erina Nanyonga (2023). Stochastic models for Illiquidity of stocks at the Uganda Securities Exchange. PhD Thesis, Makerere University.
* Herbert Batte (2022). Solutions to Diophantine equations involving terms of Lucas sequences, Perfect powers and Repdigits. PhD Thesis, Makerere University.
* Nabatanzi Florah (2023). NUMERICAL ULTIMATE RUIN PROBABILITY IN THE STOCHASTIC DUAL RISK MODEL COMPOUNDED BY INVESTMENT INCOME. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Mugabi Muhmadi (2023). SOLUTION TO A DIVIDEND PROBLEM IN INSURANCE INVESTMENT MODEL USING RUNGE – KUTTA SCHEME. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Obonyo Richard (2022). OPTIMIZATION OF INVESTMENT OF THE INSURANCE SURPLUS IN A BLACK SCHOLES MARKET FOR AN INSURANCE PROCESS WITH EXCESSLOSS RE-INSURANCE AND UNDER RUIN PROBABILITY CONSTRAINT.
* Afazali Zabibu (2022). Dynamic ensemble modelling of reserve risk in general insurance. PhD thesis, Makerere University.
* Wegulo Mariam (2021). Optimization of Expected Utility of Consumption and Terminal wealth in a portfolio in continuous time. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Nelson K. Yego Kemboi (2019). Using Machine Learning for Insurance Uptake Prediction in Kenya. PhD thesis, University of Rwanda, ACE-DS.
* Felix Ndayambaje. Mathematical optimization methods in portfolio analysis of insurance companies. PhD thesis, University of Rwanda, ACE-DS.
* Clementine Ndayiragije (2019). Pricing Insurance Policies that are Contingent upon Transitions between Certain States. MSc dissertation, University of Rwanda.
* Nicholas Bett (2019). Incorporation of Causation in Modeling and Forecasting Mortality and Longevity risks using Machine Learning in Kenya. PhD thesis, University of Rwanda, ACE-DS. * Iyakaremye Jean Pierre (2019). Modelling credit risks for life insurers using logistic regression methods. PhD thesis, University of Rwanda, ACE-DS.
* Angelique Dukunde (2018). Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for predicting diabetes and hypertension in Rwanda. PhD thesis, University of Rwanda, ACE-DS.
* Arop Martin Deosborns (2016). Optimal Control of a Wave Equation Using Actuator Design and Placement. PhD thesis, Makerere University(UGANDA)/University of Graz(AUSTRIA).
* Yasin Kikabi (2016). Multi-agent stochastic simulation for multivariate time series: A case study of the East African stock markets. PhD thesis, Makerere University(UGANDA)/Uppsala University (SWEDEN).
* Bernard Owere(2014). Optimal Dividends in a Stochastic Environment. MSc dissertation, Makerere University. Completed:
* Erina Nanyonga (2023). Geometric Mean-Reverting approach to modelling stock prices at the Uganda Securities Exchange: Case of Stanbic Bank Uganda. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Herbert Mukalazi (2023). Mathematical models for dynamic stochastic asset-liability management of Uganda’s retirement benefits schemes. Ph.D dissertation, Makerere University.
* Edison Mayanja (2022). Modeling the HIV-HCV Co-infection Dynamics and Control Strategies. Ph.D dissertation, Makerere University.
* Herbert Batte (2022). Solutions to a Non-Linear Diophantine Equation of Pillai type. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Christian Kasumo (2019). Optimisation of dividend payouts and reinsurance policies under a set ruin probability target. PhD thesis, The Nelson Mandela African Institute of Science and Technology, Arusha, Tanzania.
* Bumali Mwanda (2018). Controlling Risk Exposure by Quota-share Reinsurance for a Company with a Debt Liability. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Fred Mayambala (2017). Portfolio optimisation under transaction costs and cardinality constraints. PhD thesis, Makerere University(UGANDA)/University of Linkoping(SWEDEN).
* Peter Amutuheire (2015). On Conditions under which a prime ideal is completely prime. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Vincent Umutabazi (2015). Generalisations of Injective Modules: Red-Injective and Strongly Red-Injective modules. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Herbert Mukalazi (2014). Portfolio optimisation under transaction costs and borrowing constraints in continuous time. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Agnes Joseph (2013). Minimising the probability of ultimate ruin by excess of loss reinsurance and investments. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* Martha Nansubuga (2013). Dividend maximisation in an insurance process compounded by investment returns under ruin probability constraint. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* Samya Suleiman (2012). Flow of dividends in classical risk model with investment returns. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* DennisWokiyi (2012). Maximising investment returns of an insurance company while minimising the probability of ruin. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* Simataa Lubasi (2010). Numerical finite horizon ruin probabilities in the classical risk model with stochastic return on investments. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* Christian Kasumo(2010). Minimizing the Probability of Ultimate Ruin Under Proportional Reinsurance and Investments. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* David Ssevviiri (2010). On rational and integral quadratic forms. MSc dissertation, Makerere University.
* Rita Nankanja (2009). ICT and distance education in Makerere and Kyambogo Universities.
* Fred Mayambala (2009). Dividend maximization in an insurance process compounded with Black and Scholes investment. MSc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.
* Abdallah Ziraba (2009). The role of information and communication technology in the management of selected secondary schools in central Uganda.
* Venance Mpalanzi (2009). Portfolio Investment with proportional transactions costs and uncertain time horizon: a case of two assets. Sc dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam.